Big forecasters dial back their 2011 auto sales estimates

The churning market, weakening U.S. recovery and high unemployment are sapping consumer confidence, and that has industry watchers rethinking estimates

J.D. Power & Associates today cut its estimate for U.S. light-vehicle sales in 2011 by 300,000 to 12.6 million. And it cut its estimate for 2012 by 600,000 cars and trucks to 14.1 million. "The thought of a second-half recovery is just not in the cards. It really comes down to consumer confidence and consumers just don't have any right now," Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting, told

• Goldman Sachs now sees U.S. auto sales finishing this year at 12.8 million and today cut its 2012 estimate by 1 million to 13.5 million.
• RBC Capital Markets earlier this week lowered its 2011 estimate by 200,000 to 12.5 million and 2012 by 700,000 to 13.3 million. "Fragile U.S. consumer sentiment and recently tempered economic expectations" led to the reductions, wrote analyst Seth Weber in a research note this week.
• IHS Automotive analyst Rebecca Lindland last week cut her 2011 estimate by 200,000 to 12.5 million, vehicles, the 2012 forecast by 1.2 million to 13.5 million and the 2013 outlook by 500,000 to 15 million.
• Himanshu Patel, a JPMorgan analyst, in an Aug. 5 note, lowered his 2011 and 2012 estimates by a combined 700,000 vehicle sales, to 12.8 million this year and 13.5 million in 2012.

Analysts and automakers had been expecting "snap back" in sales this year once inventories recovered from the March earthquake in Japan. "We're not seeing that snap back, and given all the variables out there it's a lower probability that we're going to see that happen this year," Schuster said today.