The U.S. auto industry's September sales rate could be one of the highest of the year, a Ford Motor Co. analyst predicts.
The jump in September sales is being aided by an increase in demand for full-sized pickups.
According to Ford, U.S. sales of pickups are at their highest pace since December.
George Pipas, a Ford sales analyst, said big pickups are tracking at about 13 percent of industry vehicle sales this month, up from about 9 percent in April and May.
"There is a lot of merchandising, especially on trucks, because that's where the inventories are," said Pipas.
Pipas said the weak housing market has not impacted pickup demand because the vehicles usually sell well in September and October on strong incentives and advertising.
Meanwhile, incentives on vehicles such as small cars remain low because inventory is so tight, he said.
Incentives on pickup trucks such as the 2011 Dodge Ram ranged from $1,750 to $4,250. The 2011 F-150 had incentives up to $3,000, and the Chevrolet Silverado 1500 and GMC Sierra 1500 had up to $4,505 on the hood this month.
The annual pace of light vehicle industry sales for the period from January through August is about 12.5 million units, Pipas said.
Pipas said September U.S. industry sales will come in "a little ahead" of the year-to-date sales pace, Pipas said.
Pipas expects the fourth quarter sales rate to keep pace with September's result, but said the full-year sales rate will likely fall short of 13 million units.
Overall, U.S. light vehicle demand is up 11 percent this year through August to 8.5 million units.
Several analysts have lowered their outlook for industry sales in 2011 and 2012 on growing concerns about the U.S economy, lagging consumer confidence, volatile stock market and lackluster job market.
The annual sales pace for September is on track to reach 12.9 million vehicles, compared with the 12.1 million rate in August, J.D. Power and Associates said earlier this week.
The annual sales rate in September 2010 was 11.7 million vehicles.
J.D. Power is among the forecasters that have lowered the outlook for industry sales in recent months.
The September sales pace indicates the industry is getting closer to a normal sales pace as inventory from Asian manufacturers increases.
Many Asian automakers have been short of car and truck inventory this spring and summer following the March earthquake in Japan that crippled production.
Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. vehicles remain in short supply, but Pipas expects that to be corrected next month.
"By October, the levels of stock of the most popular models that were in short supply will be available," Pipas says. "Then it'll be a no-excuses quarter."
No comments:
Post a Comment